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                                                                                                                                                                          真钱赌博:中兴通讯:龙头归来

                                                                                                                                                                          2019年05月13日 11:10 来源:克尚江威新闻网-【欢迎访问公司网站】

                                                                                                                                                                            5G加速,运营商资本开支面临向上拐点

                                                                                                                                                                            5G是下一轮信息科技革命的制高点,5G将催生万物互联,从互联网到移动互联网再到5G物联网,全新的生产生活方式或会到来。全球5G竞赛加剧,国内的运营商、设备商、终端厂商都在蓄力5G,2019年三大运营商资本开支企稳回升,预计为3031亿元,结束了两年的负增长,其中5G投资约322-342亿元。2019年作为承上启下的关键之年,年内大概率发放5G商用牌照,4G扩容叠加5G小规模投资,行业有望受益于运营商资本开资向上的拐点。

                                                                                                                                                                            国内市场为自留地,5G时代份额将有所提升

                                                                                                                                                                            国内市场无疑是5G全球兵家必争之地,国内是公司重要收入来源,尤其在海外市场不确定性增加的背景下,公司更注重国内市场开拓,国内业务营收占比从2017年的56.94%提升至2018年的63.67%。海外运营商以及手机业务在北美、东亚、澳大利亚等市场份额或有收缩,4G时代公司份额约在20~25%,在5G时代国内运营商市场份额有望得到进一步提升。

                                                                                                                                                                            风波已平,研发积淀雄厚

                                                                                                                                                                            制裁风波过后,公司及时缴纳了罚款及保证金,并且公司及中兴康讯的管理层已经全部更换,并引入向BIS汇报的合规官,目前公司管理运作规范良好。公司拥有雄厚的研发积淀近七年中兴通讯的研发总投入超过600亿元,每年研发投入销售占比在10%左右,在全球设有20个研发中心,有3万余名研发人员。在2018年全球国际专利申请(PCT)中,中兴通讯以1801项已公开PCT申请量排名第二,仅次于华为。

                                                                                                                                                                            风险提示

                                                                                                                                                                            5G进程低于预期。

                                                                                                                                                                            维持“买入”评级

                                                                                                                                                                            公司业务聚焦运营商网络、政企、消费者三大领域,积极拓展物联网、车联网、光通信、硅光、Pre-5G/5G等战略性新兴市场。考虑到公司在5G网络设备领域的竞争力,公司积极开展国际业务、研发到位,进行全产业链布局,未来业绩有望继续增长重现龙头风采。预计公司2019-2021年的EPS为1.22/1.58/1.93元,对应PE为23/18/15倍,维持“买入”评级。